There's now a 40% chance for a tropical or subtropical depression forming near Florida by the Fourth of July holiday weekend.

Impact weather is expected from 3 p.m. to 9 p.m. Friday, with heavy rain during the 4th of July holiday. Showers will quickly develop in the afternoon, leading to scattered storms this evening. The impact weather continues for Saturday as we will have more rain and storms at the start of the weekend.

While water temperatures are warm enough in the Gulf to support tropical development, Saharan dust and wind shear could keep tropics quiet .. sort of.